Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as Sparta Rotterdam welcome Waalwijk to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1W 4D 5L at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sparta Rotterdam at 0.30 PPG versus Waalwijk's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sparta Rotterdam, 1 for Waalwijk and 4 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Waalwijk trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Rotterdam 62% and Waalwijk 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Waalwijk 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.53 xG and Waalwijk 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.711 / defence 1.219 | Waalwijk attack 0.982 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.317. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.53 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Sparta Rotterdam games / 52 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 37% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 39%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 70% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 37% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.53 / Waalwijk 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.711 / def 1.219 | Waalwijk attack 0.982 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Waalwijk xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 37% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk?
Record (7 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 2W | Draws 4 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.71x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
37%
2.70
24%
4.20
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.10
1.58
Waalwijk xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
8%
13.09
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.58 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 15W 14D 23L from 52 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 32L across 52 games — 0.69 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Rotterdam by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 6W 9D 11L from 26 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 3W 4D 19L across 26 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.10 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 15W 14D 23L in their last 52 games (1.13 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 8W 12D 32L in their last 52 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Waalwijk away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.04 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
5
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, Waalwijk have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 62%, Waalwijk 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 62% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 58% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 62% of Waalwijk's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk finished level at 1-1 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.53 xG and Waalwijk 1.58 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.71 / defence 1.22 against Waalwijk attack 0.98 / defence 1.27, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 37% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 39%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 50%, Waalwijk 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Rotterdam arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.