Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam host NEC Nijmegen at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel this season.
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Sparta Rotterdam) versus 2.30 (NEC Nijmegen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sparta Rotterdam, 2 for NEC Nijmegen and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 50% versus NEC Nijmegen 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 45% | NEC Nijmegen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.54 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.844 / defence 0.931 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.414 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.430. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack strength of 1.414 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Sparta Rotterdam games / 56 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 32% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 46%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | NEC Nijmegen 2.17. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 30% | NEC Nijmegen 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 32% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.54 / NEC Nijmegen 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.844 / def 0.931 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.414 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.88
NEC Nijmegen xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 32% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (9 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 2W | Draws 5 | NEC Nijmegen 2W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.84x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
32%
3.13
22%
4.50
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.43
1.88
NEC Nijmegen xG
3.13
32%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
5%
20.57
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.88 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 20W 15D 21L from 56 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 20L across 56 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.34 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 9W 8D 11L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 11W 4D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.95 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 24W 12D 20L in their last 56 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.25 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
6
Draws
2
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 50%, NEC Nijmegen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 61% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 50% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 61% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen finished level at 1-1 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.54 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.88 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.41 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 32% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 46%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 45%, NEC Nijmegen 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.34 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.