Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as Sparta Rotterdam welcome NAC Breda to Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sparta Rotterdam) versus 0.90 (NAC Breda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sparta Rotterdam, 1 for NAC Breda and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 54% versus NAC Breda 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 46% | NAC Breda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 xG and NAC Breda 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.820 / defence 1.158 | NAC Breda attack 0.833 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.438. Data: 48 Sparta Rotterdam games / 48 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 42% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 33%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 60% | NAC Breda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 42% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 / NAC Breda 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.820 / def 1.158 | NAC Breda attack 0.833 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.39
NAC Breda xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 42% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda?
Record (2 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.82x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
42%
2.36
24%
4.12
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.98
1.39
NAC Breda xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
7%
14.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.39 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sparta Rotterdam come into this having played 48 games, going 14W 14D 20L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 0.94 PPG from 48 outings (11W 12D 25L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.17 PPG, NAC Breda on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sparta Rotterdam's home form reads 6W 8D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 0.46 points per game from 24 outings (2W 5D 17L). That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.02 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 14W 14D 20L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 11W 12D 25L in their last 48 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or NAC Breda away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.08 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, NAC Breda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when NAC Breda 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 58%, NAC Breda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 58% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 50% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 58% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out NAC Breda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat NAC Breda 1-0 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 xG and NAC Breda 1.39 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against NAC Breda attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 42% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 33%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 46%, NAC Breda 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.17 PPG, NAC Breda 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.