Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Feyenoord at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Feyenoord travel to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's home record at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel: 1W 3D 1L from 5 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sparta Rotterdam are significantly better at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 6W 1D 2L from 9 outings — 2.11 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.78 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 1.41 PPG ahead (2.11 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sparta Rotterdam register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Feyenoord in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 78%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Rotterdam 67% and Feyenoord 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 33% | Feyenoord 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.10 xG and Feyenoord 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.750 / defence 1.295 | Feyenoord attack 1.171 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.368. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Sparta Rotterdam games / 9 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 19% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 60%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | Feyenoord 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 80% | Feyenoord 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 19% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.10 / Feyenoord 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.750 / def 1.295 | Feyenoord attack 1.171 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Feyenoord xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 19% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 60% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 2.78 / GA 1.44 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
19%
5.16
21%
4.81
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.17
2.07
Feyenoord xG
5.16
19%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
13%
7.95
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
2%
41.01
20%
5.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.07 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 1W 4D 4L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord's form line: 6W 1D 2L from 9 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Sparta Rotterdam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.78 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.20 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, Feyenoord have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sparta Rotterdam at 80%, Feyenoord at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Sparta Rotterdam and 100% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 60% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 100% of Feyenoord's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Sparta Rotterdam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.10 xG and Feyenoord 2.07 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Feyenoord landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.75 / defence 1.29 against Feyenoord attack 1.17 / defence 1.08, drawn from 10/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 19% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 60%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 33%, Feyenoord 89%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Feyenoord's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.