Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sparta Rotterdam 0.90 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, AZ Alkmaar 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 63% versus AZ Alkmaar 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 54% | AZ Alkmaar 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.850 / defence 1.269 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.040 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.260. Data: 46 Sparta Rotterdam games / 46 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 29% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 47%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | AZ Alkmaar 2.13. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Rotterdam 70% | AZ Alkmaar 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 29% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 / AZ Alkmaar 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.850 / def 1.269 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.040 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.66
AZ Alkmaar xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 2 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 29% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (6 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 1W | Draws 2 | AZ Alkmaar 3W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating (0.85) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
29%
3.50
24%
4.14
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.90
1.66
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.50
29%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
5%
18.46
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.66 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 15W 12D 19L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 24W 10D 12L from 46 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (6W 9D 8L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 11W 6D 6L from 23 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.02 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 15W 12D 19L in their last 46 games (1.24 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 24W 10D 12L in their last 46 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.17 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AZ Alkmaar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
6
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 65%, AZ Alkmaar 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 61% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 48% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 61% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out Sparta Rotterdam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.66 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 29% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 47%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 54%, AZ Alkmaar 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.