Roda 0-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Excelsior in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Eredivisie outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Roda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior's overall Eredivisie record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Roda, 1.00 for Excelsior — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Roda register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Excelsior in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Roda 0W, Excelsior 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.14 xG and Excelsior 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Excelsior attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.253. Data: 0 Roda games / 0 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 34% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 38%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Excelsior 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.0 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 42% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 34% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Roda 1.14 / Excelsior 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Excelsior attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Excelsior xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Excelsior kick off?
Roda vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Excelsior?
Roda 0 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is Roda vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Excelsior part of?
Roda vs Excelsior is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 34% chance of winning, Excelsior a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Roda and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Excelsior?
Record (3 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 2W.
What form are Roda and Excelsior in?
Roda (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Excelsior (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.85) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.85x) against Roda's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
34%
2.94
28%
3.59
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Roda xG
Total xG
2.37
1.23
Excelsior xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Roda and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Roda and 1.23 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Roda against 1.00 for Excelsior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Excelsior in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
Excelsior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 4 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Roda
2
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Roda have won 1, Excelsior have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Excelsior 1-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Roda's games and 100% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Roda's matches and 100% of Excelsior's.
Do Roda and Excelsior tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Roda 0-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.14 xG and Excelsior 1.23 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Roda fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Excelsior attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 34% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 38%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 100%, Excelsior 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.00 PPG, Excelsior 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Roda managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Excelsior conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.