PEC Zwolle 2-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle and Willem II meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 2D 6L this season (9 games, 0.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II away from home this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.89 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for PEC Zwolle, 1 for Willem II and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Willem II winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Willem II — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 39% versus Willem II 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 33% | Willem II 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.12 xG and Willem II 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.572 / defence 1.131 | Willem II attack 0.793 / defence 1.682. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.363. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.572 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.682 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 PEC Zwolle games / 18 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 33% | Draw 28% | Willem II 38%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Willem II 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 33% | Willem II 67%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 33% | Draw 28% | Willem II 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.12 / Willem II 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.572 / def 1.131 | Willem II attack 0.793 / def 1.682 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Willem II (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Willem II xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Willem II kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 January 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 0 Willem II.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Willem II part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 33% chance of winning, Willem II a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 0 | Willem II 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Willem II in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Willem II (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.57x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.79x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.54
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.34
1.22
Willem II xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.22 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 1W 3D 14L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 5W 3D 10L from 18 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Willem II in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 3D 14L in their last 18 games (0.33 PPG), while Willem II have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.56 PPG; Willem II away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
2
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Willem II have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Willem II 1-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Willem II?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 33%, Willem II 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (PEC Zwolle) and 78% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 67% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 78% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Willem II tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Willem II in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Willem II 2-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.12 xG and Willem II 1.22 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Willem II landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.57 / defence 1.13 against Willem II attack 0.79 / defence 1.68, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 33% | Draw 28% | Willem II 38%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 33%, Willem II 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.