PEC Zwolle 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 46%, yet in-form PEC Zwolle provide a compelling counter-argument — this PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 1 as PEC Zwolle welcome Sparta Rotterdam to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 August 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. PEC Zwolle haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAC³PARK Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sparta Rotterdam haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, PEC Zwolle have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, PEC Zwolle have won 0, Sparta Rotterdam 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 55% versus Sparta Rotterdam 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 68% | Sparta Rotterdam 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.32 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.184 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.813 / away 1.294. Data: 0 PEC Zwolle games / 34 Sparta Rotterdam games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 27% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 46%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.17. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PEC Zwolle (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. This conflicts with form data: PEC Zwolle 40% | Sparta Rotterdam 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 27% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.32 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.184 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.813 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Sparta Rotterdam xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 27% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (2 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Rotterdam 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.85) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
27%
3.66
26%
3.80
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.08
1.76
Sparta Rotterdam xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
5%
21.30
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.76 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 27W 4D 7L from 38 games, a 2.24 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. PEC Zwolle haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 11L across 38 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. Sparta Rotterdam haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours PEC Zwolle by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sparta Rotterdam heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 15W 2D 2L from 19 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 8W 6D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.61 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.66 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Sparta Rotterdam in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Pre-Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 27W 4D 7L in their last 38 games (2.24 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 2.47 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.58 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 58%, Sparta Rotterdam 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for PEC Zwolle and 58% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 47%; Sparta Rotterdam in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 37% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 58% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out PEC Zwolle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat PEC Zwolle 1-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.32 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.76 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.18 / defence 0.86, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 27% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 46%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 68%, Sparta Rotterdam 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.66. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.