PEC Zwolle 2-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 5W 3D 2L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, NAC Breda have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for PEC Zwolle, 1.00 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: PEC Zwolle 3W, NAC Breda 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 62% versus NAC Breda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 51% | NAC Breda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.83 xG and NAC Breda 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.881 / defence 0.879 | NAC Breda attack 0.659 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.352. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 PEC Zwolle games / 61 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 61% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 14%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 7.14. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 60% | NAC Breda 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 61% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.83 / NAC Breda 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.881 / def 0.879 | NAC Breda attack 0.659 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.78
NAC Breda xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda part of?
PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 61% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda?
Record (5 meetings): PEC Zwolle 3W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.66x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.08
14%
6.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.62
0.78
NAC Breda xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
6.99
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
2%
43.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.78 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 20D 24L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 0.92 PPG from 61 outings (13W 17D 31L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 0.92 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 13W 7D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 0.53 points per game from 30 outings (3W 7D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.02 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 17W 20D 24L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 13W 17D 31L in their last 61 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or NAC Breda away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.53 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 4, NAC Breda have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 2-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 50%, NAC Breda 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (PEC Zwolle) and 57% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 43% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 57% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out NAC Breda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat NAC Breda 2-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.83 xG and NAC Breda 0.78 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against NAC Breda attack 0.66 / defence 1.23, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 61% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 14%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 51%, NAC Breda 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.16 PPG, NAC Breda 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.