PEC Zwolle 1-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PEC Zwolle face Heerenveen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Heerenveen travel to MAC³PARK Stadion to take on PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, PEC Zwolle stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, PEC Zwolle have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Heerenveen — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Heerenveen's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PEC Zwolle at 1.20 PPG versus Heerenveen's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 2 for Heerenveen and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended PEC Zwolle 1–1 Heerenveen — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Heerenveen trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 61% versus Heerenveen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 57% | Heerenveen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 2.19 xG and Heerenveen 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.982 / defence 1.013 | Heerenveen attack 0.819 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.371. Heerenveen's defence rating of 1.327 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PEC Zwolle's projected output up. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 56 games and Heerenveen's last 56.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 61% | Draw 20% | Heerenveen 19%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.63 | Draw 5.03 | Heerenveen 5.32. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.19 / 1.14) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 50% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 23 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 61% | Draw 20% | Heerenveen 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG PEC Zwolle 2.19 / Heerenveen 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.982 / def 1.013 | Heerenveen attack 0.819 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Heerenveen xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 61% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.98x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 56 games and Heerenveen's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
61%
1.63
20%
5.03
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.33
1.14
Heerenveen xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
11%
8.96
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
2%
47.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.14 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 15D 26L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.12 PPG from 56 outings (17W 12D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.07 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 10W 4D 14L across their last 28 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 28 away games (6W 4D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.41 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 15W 15D 26L in their last 56 games (1.07 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 17W 12D 27L in their last 56 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Heerenveen away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.21 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Heerenveen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Heerenveen 0-2 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 61%, Heerenveen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for PEC Zwolle and 64% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 46% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 64% of Heerenveen's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 68% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 23, as PEC Zwolle and Heerenveen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 2.19 xG and Heerenveen 1.14 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Heerenveen attack 0.82 / defence 1.33, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 61% | Draw 20% | Heerenveen 19%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 57%, Heerenveen 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.07 PPG, Heerenveen 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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