NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and Willem II meet at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NEC Nijmegen have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Goffertstadion this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
On the road, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. NEC Nijmegen's 0.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Willem II's 0.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — NEC Nijmegen lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 1–4 with Willem II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Willem II — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 58% versus Willem II 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 65% | Willem II 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.50 xG and Willem II 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.265 / defence 1.228 | Willem II attack 0.615 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.270. NEC Nijmegen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 2.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 NEC Nijmegen games / 30 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 70% | Draw 18% | Willem II 12%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Willem II 8.33. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 90% | Willem II 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 70% | Draw 18% | Willem II 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 57% | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.50 / Willem II 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.265 / def 1.228 | Willem II attack 0.615 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Willem II xG
57%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 70% chance of winning, Willem II a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Willem II?
Record (3 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 1W | Draws 1 | Willem II 1W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Willem II in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Willem II (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.26x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.61x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 64/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
70%
1.42
18%
5.59
12%
8.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.46
0.96
Willem II xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
8.49
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
8%
12.19
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
1%
103.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.96 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 23W 17D 25L from 65 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 23L across 65 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.51 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 13W 9D 10L from 32 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 12W 8D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.60 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Willem II in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 23W 17D 25L in their last 65 games (1.32 PPG), while Willem II have gone 28W 14D 23L in their last 65 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Willem II away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.50 PPG; Willem II away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 4-1 on 22 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
2
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Willem II?
From 5 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, Willem II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Willem II 1-4 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Willem II?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 72%, Willem II 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (NEC Nijmegen) and 31% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Willem II in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 50% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 31% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Willem II tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Willem II in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen and Willem II finished level at 1-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.50 xG and Willem II 0.96 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.26 / defence 1.23 against Willem II attack 0.61 / defence 1.23, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 70% | Draw 18% | Willem II 12%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 65%, Willem II 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.32 PPG, Willem II 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.