NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen host Vitesse at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Goffertstadion, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vitesse — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Vitesse have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (NEC Nijmegen) versus 1.20 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Vitesse have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for NEC Nijmegen.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 1–4 with Vitesse winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Vitesse have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Vitesse in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 50% versus Vitesse 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 48% | Vitesse 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.64 xG and Vitesse 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.271 / defence 1.016 | Vitesse attack 0.785 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.452. NEC Nijmegen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vitesse's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 NEC Nijmegen games / 40 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 47% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 25%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Vitesse 4.00. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NEC Nijmegen 50% | Vitesse 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 47% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.64 / Vitesse 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.271 / def 1.016 | Vitesse attack 0.785 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Vitesse xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 3 Vitesse.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 47% chance of winning, Vitesse a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse?
Record (4 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 0W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 3W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Vitesse (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.27x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.66
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.80
1.16
Vitesse xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
5%
20.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.16 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 10W 16D 14L from 40 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 19L across 40 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.15 PPG, Vitesse on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 5W 9D 6L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 6W 4D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
Vitesse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 10W 16D 14L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 11W 10D 19L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Vitesse away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.20 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Vitesse won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
4
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Vitesse have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Vitesse 0-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 70%, Vitesse 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (NEC Nijmegen) and 50% (Vitesse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 45% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 50% of Vitesse's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Vitesse tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NEC Nijmegen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat NEC Nijmegen 1-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.64 xG and Vitesse 1.16 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vitesse outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.27 / defence 1.02 against Vitesse attack 0.79 / defence 0.80, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 47% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 25%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 48%, Vitesse 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.15 PPG, Vitesse 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.