NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 9 as NEC Nijmegen welcome Excelsior to Goffertstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Goffertstadion this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Excelsior — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Excelsior have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (NEC Nijmegen) versus 1.10 (Excelsior). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 52% versus Excelsior 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 38% | Excelsior 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.50 xG and Excelsior 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.694 / defence 0.866 | Excelsior attack 0.790 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.321. NEC Nijmegen's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 NEC Nijmegen games / 8 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 51% | Draw 26% | Excelsior 23%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Excelsior 4.35. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 40% | Excelsior 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 51% | Draw 26% | Excelsior 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.50 / Excelsior 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.694 / def 0.866 | Excelsior attack 0.790 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Excelsior xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 51% chance of winning, Excelsior a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Excelsior (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (0.69) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.83
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.40
0.90
Excelsior xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
5%
19.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.90 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 11W 14D 17L from 42 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 12L across 42 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NEC Nijmegen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 2W 8D 10L from 20 games — 0.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.12 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Excelsior's away record stands at 9W 5D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.10 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 11W 14D 17L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 0.70 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: NEC Nijmegen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
1
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, Excelsior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Excelsior 0-2 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 45%, Excelsior 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (NEC Nijmegen) and 55% (Excelsior).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 55% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 55% of Excelsior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior finished level at 1-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.50 xG and Excelsior 0.90 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.69 / defence 0.87 against Excelsior attack 0.79 / defence 1.30, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 51% | Draw 26% | Excelsior 23%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 38%, Excelsior 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.