NAC Breda 3-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Relegation Round as NAC Breda welcome Roda to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Roda have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
NAC Breda are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Roda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for NAC Breda, 2 for Roda and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Roda trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 71% and Roda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 68% | Roda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.69 xG and Roda 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Roda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.473. Data: 0 NAC Breda games / 0 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 42% | Draw 26% | Roda 32%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 60% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Roda | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 13 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 42% | Draw 26% | Roda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG NAC Breda 1.69 / Roda 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Roda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Roda xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Roda kick off?
NAC Breda vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 May 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Roda?
NAC Breda 3 - 1 Roda.
Where is NAC Breda vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Roda part of?
NAC Breda vs Roda is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 42% chance of winning, Roda a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both NAC Breda and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Roda?
Record (6 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 2 | Roda 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and Roda in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.85x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.80
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.12
1.44
Roda xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
6%
17.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.44 for Roda, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 17W 5D 16L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. NAC Breda haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Roda's form line: 12W 7D 19L from 38 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. Roda haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.47 PPG, Roda on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (9W 3D 7L).
On the road, Roda have gone 5W 3D 11L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.29 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Roda in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Pre-Season
Roda
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Roda in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 17W 5D 16L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Roda have gone 12W 7D 19L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Roda away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.58 PPG; Roda away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Roda?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 4, Roda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Roda 0-5 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Roda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 68%, Roda 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (NAC Breda) and 53% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of NAC Breda's games and 53% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of NAC Breda's matches and 53% of Roda's.
Do NAC Breda and Roda tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Roda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Roda 3-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.69 xG and Roda 1.44 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Roda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 42% | Draw 26% | Roda 32%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 68%, Roda 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.47 PPG, Roda 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.