MVV 1-4 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Relegation Round as MVV welcome NAC Breda to De Geusselt. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, MVV have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. MVV have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at De Geusselt, MVV have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Geusselt this season.
NAC Breda — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: MVV 1.40 PPG, NAC Breda 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour NAC Breda, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for MVV.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2023, ended 0–1 with NAC Breda winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. NAC Breda have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
MVV trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
NAC Breda trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 54% versus NAC Breda 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 59% | NAC Breda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.65 xG and NAC Breda 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.290. Data: 0 MVV games / 0 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 45% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 28%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | NAC Breda 3.57. MVV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: MVV 50% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 45% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG MVV 1.65 / NAC Breda 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: MVV (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.26
NAC Breda xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs NAC Breda kick off?
MVV vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs NAC Breda?
MVV 1 - 4 NAC Breda.
Where is MVV vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs NAC Breda part of?
MVV vs NAC Breda is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 45% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both MVV and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and NAC Breda?
Record (5 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 4W.
What form are MVV and NAC Breda in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.85x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.59
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
MVV xG
Total xG
2.91
1.26
NAC Breda xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
5%
18.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are MVV and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for MVV and 1.26 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
MVV come into this having played 39 games, going 12W 4D 23L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.54 PPG from 39 outings (17W 9D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of MVV — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
MVV's home form reads 5W 3D 11L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (6W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.51 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 12W 4D 23L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 17W 9D 13L in their last 39 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 0.95 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.11 PPG.
Have MVV or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when NAC Breda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
MVV
0
Draws
6
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, NAC Breda have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did MVV and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when NAC Breda 1-2 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 58%, NAC Breda 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (MVV) and 58% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV have failed to score in 26% of games; NAC Breda in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of MVV's recent matches and 47% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is MVV vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of MVV's matches and 58% of NAC Breda's.
Do MVV and NAC Breda tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 1-4 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat MVV 1-4 at De Geusselt, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.65 xG and NAC Breda 1.26 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 45% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 28%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 59%, NAC Breda 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. MVV (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.