Heracles 0-0 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Utrecht (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heracles face Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host Utrecht at Asito Stadium in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's home record at Asito Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Heracles are significantly better at Asito Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Utrecht — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Utrecht have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Utrecht — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Utrecht have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Heracles's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 0–4 with Utrecht winning.
It is worth noting that Utrecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Utrecht in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 61% and Utrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 64% | Utrecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.36 xG and Utrecht 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.905 / defence 1.311 | Utrecht attack 1.059 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.350. Data: 59 Heracles games / 59 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 28% | Draw 23% | Utrecht 49%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Utrecht 2.04. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 50% | Utrecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 28% | Draw 23% | Utrecht 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Heracles 1.36 / Utrecht 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.905 / def 1.311 | Utrecht attack 1.059 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Utrecht xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Utrecht kick off?
Heracles vs Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Asito Stadium.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Utrecht?
Heracles 0 - 0 Utrecht.
Where is Heracles vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs Utrecht part of?
Heracles vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 28% chance of winning, Utrecht a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Heracles and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Utrecht?
Record (7 meetings): Heracles 1W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 5W.
What form are Heracles and Utrecht in?
Heracles (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.91) and Utrecht's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
28%
3.61
23%
4.33
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.24
1.87
Utrecht xG
3.61
28%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
4%
23.52
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Heracles and 1.87 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles come into this having played 59 games, going 14W 13D 32L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.66 PPG from 59 outings (27W 17D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Heracles's home form reads 10W 8D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.62 points per game from 29 outings (12W 11D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.69 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heracles have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Utrecht in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 14W 13D 32L in their last 59 games (0.93 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 27W 17D 15L in their last 59 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Utrecht away?
Utrecht's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.31 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and Utrecht runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Utrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Heracles
2
Draws
5
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 1, Utrecht have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Heracles 0-0 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Heracles at 72%, Utrecht at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Heracles and 66% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Heracles's games and 79% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Heracles's matches and 66% of Utrecht's.
Do Heracles and Utrecht tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Heracles's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Heracles and Utrecht drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.36 xG and Utrecht 1.87 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Utrecht landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.91 / defence 1.31 against Utrecht attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 28% | Draw 23% | Utrecht 49%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 64%, Utrecht 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Utrecht's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.