Heracles 1-3 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heracles face PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host PSV Eindhoven at Asito Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles's home record at Asito Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PSV Eindhoven have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PSV Eindhoven are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
PSV Eindhoven have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Heracles's 0 victories.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 63%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 49% versus PSV Eindhoven 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 69% | PSV Eindhoven 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.27 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.948 / defence 1.123 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.364 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.318. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Heracles games / 35 PSV Eindhoven games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Heracles 23% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 54%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | PSV Eindhoven 1.85. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 40% | PSV Eindhoven 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Asito Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 23% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Heracles 1.27 / PSV Eindhoven 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.948 / def 1.123 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.364 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
2.02
PSV Eindhoven xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Asito Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Heracles 1 - 3 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 23% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Heracles and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (4 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 4W.
What form are Heracles and PSV Eindhoven in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.95) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
23%
4.38
23%
4.26
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.29
2.02
PSV Eindhoven xG
4.38
23%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
13%
7.54
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
3%
32.99
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Heracles and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Heracles and 2.02 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 35 games, going 9W 7D 19L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PSV Eindhoven sit at 2.69 PPG from 35 outings (30W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.72 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have taken 2.47 points per game from 17 outings (13W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.31 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 9W 7D 19L in their last 35 games (0.97 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 30W 4D 1L in their last 35 (2.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.29 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.47 PPG.
Have Heracles or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when PSV Eindhoven won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Heracles
0
Draws
8
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PSV Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Heracles 1-3 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 35% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 53%, PSV Eindhoven 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Heracles and 71% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven in 53%; Heracles have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play PSV Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Heracles's recent matches and 47% of PSV Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Heracles's matches and 71% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Heracles and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Heracles 1-3 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.27 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.02 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 2.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.36 / defence 0.84, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 23% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 54%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 69%, PSV Eindhoven 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.