Heracles 0-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Heracles and Heerenveen meet at Erve Asito in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Heracles have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 4W 1D 2L at Erve Asito — 1.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Heerenveen (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen away from home this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Heracles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Heerenveen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 50% and Heerenveen 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 43% | Heerenveen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.32 xG and Heerenveen 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.997 / defence 1.005 | Heerenveen attack 0.780 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.356. Data: 14 Heracles games / 14 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 42% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 30%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Heerenveen 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 43% | Heerenveen 67%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 42% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Heracles 1.32 / Heerenveen 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.997 / def 1.005 | Heerenveen attack 0.780 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Heracles (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Heerenveen xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Heerenveen kick off?
Heracles vs Heerenveen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Heracles 0 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is Heracles vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Heerenveen part of?
Heracles vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 42% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Heracles and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Heerenveen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and Heerenveen in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Heracles's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (0.78x) against Heracles's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.64
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.38
1.06
Heerenveen xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Heracles and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Heracles and 1.06 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Heracles have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 2D 8L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heerenveen's form line: 5W 3D 6L from 14 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Heracles against 1.29 for Heerenveen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Heracles have posted 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.21 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Heerenveen away?
Heracles's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.17 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Heerenveen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heerenveen won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Heracles
1
Draws
6
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Heerenveen?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 1, Heerenveen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Heerenveen 4-1 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 50%, Heerenveen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Heracles) and 33% (Heerenveen).
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Heerenveen in 33%; Heracles have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Heerenveen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Heracles's games and 67% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Heracles's recent games and 33% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heerenveen defy the odds to beat Heracles 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Heracles 0-1 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.32 xG and Heerenveen 1.06 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Heracles fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Heerenveen attack 0.78 / defence 1.08, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 42% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 30%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Heerenveen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 43%, Heerenveen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Heerenveen's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.00 PPG, Heerenveen 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.