Heracles 0-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 46%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Heracles vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Heracles and FC Volendam meet at Asito Stadium in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Heracles's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 2W 3D 5L at Asito Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FC Volendam (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Volendam are 0.60 PPG clear of Heracles in recent Eredivisie fixtures (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Heracles, 1 for FC Volendam and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 59% and FC Volendam 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 64% | FC Volendam 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.46 xG and FC Volendam 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.719 / defence 1.255 | FC Volendam attack 0.583 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.740 / away 1.256. Heracles's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Heracles games / 30 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 46% | Draw 34% | FC Volendam 20%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.17 | Draw 2.94 | FC Volendam 5.00. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 50% | FC Volendam 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 46% | Draw 34% | FC Volendam 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Heracles 1.46 / FC Volendam 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.719 / def 1.255 | FC Volendam attack 0.583 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.740 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Heracles (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FC Volendam xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs FC Volendam kick off?
Heracles vs FC Volendam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Asito Stadium.
What was the final score in Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Heracles 0 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is Heracles vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs FC Volendam part of?
Heracles vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 46% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 20% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Heracles and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 2 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Heracles and FC Volendam in?
Heracles (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.72) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.58x) against Heracles's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 64/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
46%
2.17
34%
2.97
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.38
0.92
FC Volendam xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
5%
21.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Heracles and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Heracles and 0.92 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Heracles's recent record stands at 14W 15D 35L from 64 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 32W 11D 21L across 64 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 10W 10D 12L from 32 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 12W 6D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Heracles are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.19 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.72 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 62%.
Last 64 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 14W 15D 35L in their last 64 games (0.89 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 32W 11D 21L in their last 64 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.25 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 3-0 on 25 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Heracles
2
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, FC Volendam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Heracles 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 69%, FC Volendam 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Heracles and 66% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Heracles's games and 56% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Heracles's matches and 66% of FC Volendam's.
Do Heracles and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Heracles 0-2 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.46 xG and FC Volendam 0.92 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Volendam outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.72 / defence 1.25 against FC Volendam attack 0.58 / defence 1.17, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 46% | Draw 34% | FC Volendam 20%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 64%, FC Volendam 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Volendam's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.