Groningen vs Willem II – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Groningen (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Groningen face Willem II.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Groningen host Willem II at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Groningen are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Groningen, 1 for Willem II and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 3–1 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Willem II in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 61% and Willem II 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 61% | Willem II 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 3.02 xG and Willem II 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.156 / defence 1.090 | Willem II attack 0.728 / defence 1.501. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.812. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.501 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Groningen games / 9 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 69% | Draw 17% | Willem II 15%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.45 | Draw 5.88 | Willem II 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (69%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (3.02 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 70% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 69% | Draw 17% | Willem II 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 73% | xG Groningen 3.02 / Willem II 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.156 / def 1.090 | Willem II attack 0.728 / def 1.501 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.812 • Poisson stance: Groningen (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.02
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Willem II xG
73%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Willem II kick off?
Groningen vs Willem II is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Euroborg.
Where is Groningen vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Willem II part of?
Groningen vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 69% chance of winning, Willem II a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Groningen and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Willem II?
Record (6 meetings): Groningen 3W | Draws 2 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Groningen and Willem II in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Willem II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Groningen's attack rating (1.16) and Willem II's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 3.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 4-1 (5.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
69%
1.46
17%
6.03
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
4 – 1
5.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.02
Groningen xG
Total xG
4.45
1.44
Willem II xG
1.46
69%
Home win
6.03
17%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.74
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
5%
20.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
1%
138.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Groningen and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 3.02 expected goals for Groningen and 1.44 for Willem II, a combined total of 4.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Groningen have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 18W 8D 18L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 19W 9D 16L from 44 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.41 PPG, Willem II on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (9W 5D 8L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 11W 3D 8L from 22 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.48 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Willem II in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 18W 8D 18L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while Willem II have gone 19W 9D 16L in their last 44 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.45 PPG; Willem II away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Groningen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Groningen's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Groningen
2
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, Willem II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Willem II 1-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Willem II?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 59%, Willem II 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Groningen and 68% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Willem II in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Groningen's games and 64% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Groningen's matches and 68% of Willem II's.
Do Groningen and Willem II tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Willem II in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.