Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 2W 3D 5L at Euroborg — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
AZ Alkmaar have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Groningen's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–4 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
It is worth noting that AZ Alkmaar have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 54% versus AZ Alkmaar 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 51% | AZ Alkmaar 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.59 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.939 / defence 0.955 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.922 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.343. Data: 61 Groningen games / 61 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 45% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 27%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | AZ Alkmaar 3.70. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AZ Alkmaar (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | AZ Alkmaar 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 45% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Groningen 1.59 / AZ Alkmaar 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.939 / def 0.955 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.922 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Groningen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
AZ Alkmaar xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Groningen 3 - 0 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 45% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Groningen and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (7 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 5W.
What form are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar in?
Groningen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.94x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.59
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.77
1.18
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
5%
18.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Groningen and 1.18 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 14D 27L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.62 PPG from 61 outings (28W 15D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 13W 9D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.50 points per game from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.80 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 66%.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 20W 14D 27L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 28W 15D 18L in their last 61 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Groningen's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.60 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Groningen
1
Draws
5
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 50%, AZ Alkmaar 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Groningen) and 63% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Groningen's recent matches and 57% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Groningen's matches and 63% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Groningen and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AZ Alkmaar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat AZ Alkmaar 3-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.59 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.18 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 45% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 27%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 51%, AZ Alkmaar 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.