GO Ahead Eagles 0-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GO Ahead Eagles at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Adelaarshorst plays host to GO Ahead Eagles versus Groningen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GO Ahead Eagles have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Adelaarshorst, GO Ahead Eagles have gone 4W 0D 2L this season (6 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Groningen (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen away from home this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward GO Ahead Eagles. A 1.00 PPG lead over Groningen (1.70 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
GO Ahead Eagles half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Groningen half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GO Ahead Eagles 50% versus Groningen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 50% | Groningen 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 2.29 xG and Groningen 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.166 / defence 1.288 | Groningen attack 0.710 / defence 1.508. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.335. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.508 — this is suppressing GO Ahead Eagles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 GO Ahead Eagles games / 12 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 61% | Draw 19% | Groningen 19%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | Groningen 5.26. The model has a clear lean to GO Ahead Eagles (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GO Ahead Eagles are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GO Ahead Eagles 50% | Groningen 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 61% | Draw 19% | Groningen 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 2.29 / Groningen 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.166 / def 1.288 | Groningen attack 0.710 / def 1.508 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: GO Ahead Eagles (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Groningen xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen?
GO Ahead Eagles 0 - 1 Groningen.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 61% chance of winning, Groningen a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making GO Ahead Eagles the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Groningen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GO Ahead Eagles's attack at 1.17x the league average against Groningen's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.71x) against GO Ahead Eagles's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GO Ahead Eagles Win
61%
1.63
19%
5.17
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
3.51
1.22
Groningen xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
10%
9.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
2%
51.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.22 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GO Ahead Eagles's recent record stands at 5W 2D 5L from 12 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 5L across 12 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours GO Ahead Eagles by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, GO Ahead Eagles have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — GO Ahead Eagles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Groningen's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GO Ahead Eagles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 0.92 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while Groningen have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or Groningen away?
GO Ahead Eagles's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 2.00 PPG; Groningen away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GO Ahead Eagles have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
GO Ahead Eagles
3
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 2, Groningen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Groningen 0-0 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GO Ahead Eagles 50%, Groningen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for GO Ahead Eagles and 83% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Groningen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of GO Ahead Eagles's games and 67% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of GO Ahead Eagles's matches and 83% of Groningen's.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Groningen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat GO Ahead Eagles 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat GO Ahead Eagles 0-1 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 2.29 xG and Groningen 1.22 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GO Ahead Eagles fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.17 / defence 1.29 against Groningen attack 0.71 / defence 1.51, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 61% | Draw 19% | Groningen 19%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Groningen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 50%, Groningen 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Groningen's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, GO Ahead Eagles arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.