Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fortuna Sittard (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fortuna Sittard face Willem II.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Stadion plays host to Fortuna Sittard versus Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Sittard have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Fortuna Sittard's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Willem II's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Sittard register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Willem II in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Fortuna Sittard have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Willem II managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
The historical record gives Fortuna Sittard a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Fortuna Sittard goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 77% and Willem II 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 67% | Willem II 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 2.37 xG and Willem II 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.911 / defence 1.078 | Willem II attack 0.730 / defence 1.494. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.814. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.494 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Fortuna Sittard games / 9 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 57% | Draw 21% | Willem II 21%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Willem II 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Sittard (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 90% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 57% | Draw 21% | Willem II 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG Fortuna Sittard 2.37 / Willem II 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.911 / def 1.078 | Willem II attack 0.730 / def 1.494 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.814 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Willem II xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 May 2027 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 57% chance of winning, Willem II a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Willem II?
Record (5 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 3W | Draws 2 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Willem II in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Willem II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.73x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
57%
1.74
21%
4.68
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.80
1.43
Willem II xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
9%
10.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
2%
50.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.43 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 15W 9D 19L from 43 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 15L across 43 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.53 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 10W 3D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.49 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Willem II in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Willem II have gone 19W 9D 15L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.38 PPG; Willem II away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
2
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Willem II?
From 5 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, Willem II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Willem II 0-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Willem II?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for Fortuna Sittard, 62% for Willem II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fortuna Sittard and 67% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 62% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 67% of Willem II's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Willem II tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Willem II in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.