Fortuna Sittard 1-4 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to face Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 January 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Fortuna Sittard (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 5W 1D 4L at Fortuna Sittard Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.20 for PEC Zwolle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Sittard lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–3 with PEC Zwolle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 45% versus PEC Zwolle 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 58% | PEC Zwolle 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.40 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.861 / defence 1.139 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.753 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.306. Data: 53 Fortuna Sittard games / 53 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 27% | PEC Zwolle 30%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | PEC Zwolle 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Sittard at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 40% | PEC Zwolle 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 27% | PEC Zwolle 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.40 / PEC Zwolle 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.861 / def 1.139 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.753 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.12
PEC Zwolle xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 4 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 43% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle?
Record (5 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 2W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 3W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.86x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.75x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.77
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.52
1.12
PEC Zwolle xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.12 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Sittard come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 15D 22L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.06 PPG from 53 outings (14W 14D 25L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.06 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fortuna Sittard's home form reads 12W 6D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Fortuna Sittard are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.88 points per game from 26 outings (4W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Sittard come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.21 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 14W 14D 25L in their last 53 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.62 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PEC Zwolle won 1-4 on 26 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
5
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, PEC Zwolle have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 3-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 50%, PEC Zwolle 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Fortuna Sittard) and 54% (PEC Zwolle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 31% of games; PEC Zwolle in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 62% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 54% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Fortuna Sittard 1-4 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.40 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.12 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.75 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 27% | PEC Zwolle 30%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 58%, PEC Zwolle 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.19 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.