Fortuna Sittard 2-0 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Sittard host Heerenveen at Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 25 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's home record at Fortuna Sittard Stadion: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heerenveen stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fortuna Sittard at 1.20 PPG versus Heerenveen's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 2 for Heerenveen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Heerenveen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Heerenveen in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 59% versus Heerenveen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 61% | Heerenveen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 0.90 xG and Heerenveen 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.808 / defence 1.175 | Heerenveen attack 0.856 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.233. Heerenveen's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Fortuna Sittard games / 51 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 24% | Draw 34% | Heerenveen 42%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | Heerenveen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heerenveen at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Heerenveen 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 24% | Draw 34% | Heerenveen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Fortuna Sittard 0.90 / Heerenveen 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.808 / def 1.175 | Heerenveen attack 0.856 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Heerenveen xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 25 January 2023 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Fortuna Sittard 2 - 0 Heerenveen.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 24% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen?
Record (3 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 1W | Draws 0 | Heerenveen 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
24%
4.12
34%
2.94
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.14
1.24
Heerenveen xG
4.12
24%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.6 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.24 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 9D 28L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heerenveen's form line: 17W 14D 20L from 51 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 1.00 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.00 PPG from 25 outings (7W 4D 14L).
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 7W 9D 9L from 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.08 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 14W 9D 28L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 17W 14D 20L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Heerenveen away?
Heerenveen's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.00 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Heerenveen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fortuna Sittard
2
Draws
4
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 4, Heerenveen have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Heerenveen 2-1 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Heerenveen see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 48%, Heerenveen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fortuna Sittard) and 40% (Heerenveen).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Heerenveen in 36%; Heerenveen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 44% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Fortuna Sittard's recent games and 40% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Heerenveen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Heerenveen 2-0 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 0.90 xG and Heerenveen 1.24 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heerenveen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.81 / defence 1.18 against Heerenveen attack 0.86 / defence 0.77, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 24% | Draw 34% | Heerenveen 42%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Sittard win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 61%, Heerenveen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Heerenveen's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.00 PPG, Heerenveen 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.