Fortuna Sittard 2-4 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Feyenoord (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fortuna Sittard face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord meet at Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 February 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Sittard have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Sittard Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Feyenoord's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Feyenoord arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 2 for Feyenoord and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 57% versus Feyenoord 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 59% | Feyenoord 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 0.96 xG and Feyenoord 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.796 / defence 0.971 | Feyenoord attack 1.348 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.199. Fortuna Sittard's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Fortuna Sittard games / 56 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 20% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 49%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | Feyenoord 2.04. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 30% | Feyenoord 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 20% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Fortuna Sittard 0.96 / Feyenoord 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.796 / def 0.971 | Feyenoord attack 1.348 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Feyenoord xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Fortuna Sittard 2 - 4 Feyenoord.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 20% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord?
Record (3 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 1 | Feyenoord 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.35x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
20%
4.94
31%
3.24
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.53
1.57
Feyenoord xG
4.94
20%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
4%
23.75
19%
5.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.57 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 17W 10D 29L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord's form line: 36W 12D 8L from 56 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.14 PPG from 28 outings (9W 5D 14L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 18W 5D 5L from 28 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.23 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 17W 10D 29L in their last 56 games (1.09 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 36W 12D 8L in their last 56 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.14 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Fortuna Sittard or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Sittard have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-0 on 5 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Fortuna Sittard
3
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 0, Feyenoord have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 46%, Feyenoord 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Fortuna Sittard) and 64% (Feyenoord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Feyenoord in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 64% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 64% of Feyenoord's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Fortuna Sittard 2-4 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 0.96 xG and Feyenoord 1.57 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Feyenoord outscored their 1.57 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against Feyenoord attack 1.35 / defence 0.78, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 20% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 49%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 59%, Feyenoord 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.