Feyenoord 3-1 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Feyenoord at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Utrecht make the trip to Stadion Feijenoord to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 April 2023 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Feyenoord's overall Eredivisie record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Feyenoord at Stadion Feijenoord this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Utrecht's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Feyenoord. A 1.30 PPG lead over Utrecht (2.80 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Utrecht in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Feyenoord 1W, Utrecht 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Utrecht — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 59% versus Utrecht 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 64% | Utrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.23 xG and Utrecht 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.262 / defence 0.796 | Utrecht attack 1.296 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.293. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Utrecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Feyenoord games / 63 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 56% | Draw 23% | Utrecht 21%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Utrecht 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 70% | Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 56% | Draw 23% | Utrecht 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Feyenoord 2.23 / Utrecht 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.262 / def 0.796 | Utrecht attack 1.296 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Utrecht xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Utrecht kick off?
Feyenoord vs Utrecht kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Feyenoord 3 - 1 Utrecht.
Where is Feyenoord vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Utrecht part of?
Feyenoord vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 56% chance of winning, Utrecht a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Feyenoord and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Utrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Feyenoord 1W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 1W.
What form are Feyenoord and Utrecht in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Utrecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.26) and Utrecht's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (1.30x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.38
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.56
1.33
Utrecht xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
11%
9.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
2%
44.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.33 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feyenoord come into this having played 63 games, going 43W 12D 8L for 2.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.44 PPG from 63 outings (24W 19D 20L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Feyenoord's home form reads 21W 7D 3L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.23 points per game from 31 outings (10W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.51 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht in 60%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Current Season
Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 43W 12D 8L in their last 63 games (2.24 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 24W 19D 20L in their last 63 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Utrecht away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.26 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Utrecht in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Feyenoord have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 1-5 on 3 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
1
Draws
2
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Utrecht have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Utrecht 0-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Utrecht?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 52%, Utrecht 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Feyenoord and 71% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Feyenoord's games and 61% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Feyenoord's matches and 71% of Utrecht's.
Do Feyenoord and Utrecht tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Utrecht 3-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.23 xG and Utrecht 1.33 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.26 / defence 0.80 against Utrecht attack 1.30 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 56% | Draw 23% | Utrecht 21%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 64%, Utrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Utrecht's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.