Feyenoord 1-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Groningen travel to Stadion Feijenoord to take on Feyenoord. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord.
Groningen — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Feyenoord are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Feyenoord, 0 for Groningen and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 3–0 with Feyenoord winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Feyenoord trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Groningen trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 58% versus Groningen 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 61% | Groningen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.79 xG and Groningen 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.206 / defence 0.792 | Groningen attack 0.774 / defence 1.484. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.236. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.484 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Feyenoord games / 57 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 78% | Draw 15% | Groningen 6%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | Groningen 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (78%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 50% | Groningen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 78% | Draw 15% | Groningen 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 51% | xG Feyenoord 2.79 / Groningen 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.206 / def 0.792 | Groningen attack 0.774 / def 1.484 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.79
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Groningen xG
51%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Groningen kick off?
Feyenoord vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Feyenoord 1 - 0 Groningen.
Where is Feyenoord vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Groningen part of?
Feyenoord vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 78% chance of winning, Groningen a 6% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Feyenoord and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Groningen?
Record (3 meetings): Feyenoord 1W | Draws 2 | Groningen 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Groningen in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Groningen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.21) and Groningen's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
78%
1.28
15%
6.50
6%
15.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.79
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.55
0.76
Groningen xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.50
15%
Draw
15.97
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
6%
16.33
Win to Nil
37%
2.72
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 2.79 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.76 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 37W 12D 8L from 57 games, a 2.16 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 30L across 57 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 1.23 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 18W 7D 3L from 28 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 6W 5D 17L across 28 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.16 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen in 61%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Groningen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 37W 12D 8L in their last 57 games (2.16 PPG), while Groningen have gone 13W 14D 30L in their last 57 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Groningen away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.18 PPG; Groningen away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Groningen in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feyenoord and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Feyenoord
3
Draws
0
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 5, Groningen have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Groningen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 50%, Groningen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Feyenoord and 68% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Groningen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Feyenoord's games and 64% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Feyenoord's matches and 68% of Groningen's.
Do Feyenoord and Groningen tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Groningen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Groningen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Groningen 1-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.79 xG and Groningen 0.76 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Feyenoord fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.21 / defence 0.79 against Groningen attack 0.77 / defence 1.48, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 78% | Draw 15% | Groningen 6%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 61%, Groningen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Groningen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.