Feyenoord 2-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feyenoord vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees FC Volendam travel to Stadion Feijenoord to take on Feyenoord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Feyenoord have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadion Feijenoord — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Feyenoord have won 1, FC Volendam 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Feyenoord winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Feyenoord trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC Volendam trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 57% and FC Volendam 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 60% | FC Volendam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.19 xG and FC Volendam 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.107 / defence 0.732 | FC Volendam attack 0.681 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.285. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Feyenoord games / 24 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 72% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 9%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | FC Volendam 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 50% | FC Volendam 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 72% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 43% | xG Feyenoord 2.19 / FC Volendam 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.107 / def 0.732 | FC Volendam attack 0.681 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.64
FC Volendam xG
43%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs FC Volendam kick off?
Feyenoord vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Feyenoord 2 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Feyenoord vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs FC Volendam part of?
Feyenoord vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 72% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Feyenoord and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): Feyenoord 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and FC Volendam in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.11) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 3-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
72%
1.39
19%
5.17
9%
11.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.83
0.64
FC Volendam xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
11.64
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
11%
8.91
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
1%
103.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.64 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 38W 12D 8L from 58 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 17L across 58 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 19W 7D 3L from 29 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 9W 11D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.72 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 67%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 38W 12D 8L in their last 58 games (2.17 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 26W 15D 17L in their last 58 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or FC Volendam away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.21 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
2
Draws
0
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 4, FC Volendam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when FC Volendam 0-0 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and FC Volendam?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 48%, FC Volendam 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Feyenoord) and 55% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 59% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Feyenoord's matches and 55% of FC Volendam's.
Do Feyenoord and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out FC Volendam 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat FC Volendam 2-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.19 xG and FC Volendam 0.64 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.11 / defence 0.73 against FC Volendam attack 0.68 / defence 1.25, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 72% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 9%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 60%, FC Volendam 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.60. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.