Feyenoord 5-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Excelsior travel to Stadion Feijenoord to take on Feyenoord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Feyenoord — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 53% versus Excelsior 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 62% | Excelsior 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.60 xG and Excelsior 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.049 / defence 0.621 | Excelsior attack 0.784 / defence 1.519. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.349. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.519 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.621 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Feyenoord games / 13 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 79% | Draw 14% | Excelsior 7%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | Excelsior 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 40% | Excelsior 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 79% | Draw 14% | Excelsior 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 45% | xG Feyenoord 2.60 / Excelsior 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.049 / def 0.621 | Excelsior attack 0.784 / def 1.519 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Excelsior xG
45%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Excelsior kick off?
Feyenoord vs Excelsior kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Feyenoord 5 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is Feyenoord vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Excelsior part of?
Feyenoord vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 79% chance of winning, Excelsior a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Feyenoord and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feyenoord and Excelsior in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Excelsior (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.05) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 2.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
79%
1.27
14%
7.24
7%
14.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.26
0.66
Excelsior xG
1.27
79%
Home win
7.24
14%
Draw
14.01
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
7%
13.49
Win to Nil
41%
2.44
1%
188.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.66 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feyenoord come into this having played 47 games, going 31W 8D 8L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 1.53 PPG from 47 outings (20W 12D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Excelsior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Feyenoord's home form reads 15W 5D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 1.43 points per game from 23 outings (9W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.98 scored and 1.81 conceded. Excelsior's attacking output running into Feyenoord's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior in 62%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 31W 8D 8L in their last 47 games (2.15 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 20W 12D 15L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Excelsior away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.17 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Excelsior in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Feyenoord won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 6, Excelsior have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Feyenoord 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Excelsior?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 44%, Excelsior 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Feyenoord) and 56% (Excelsior). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 61% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Feyenoord's matches and 56% of Excelsior's.
Do Feyenoord and Excelsior tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Excelsior 5-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.60 xG and Excelsior 0.66 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.05 / defence 0.62 against Excelsior attack 0.78 / defence 1.52, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 79% | Draw 14% | Excelsior 7%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 62%, Excelsior 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Excelsior's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.53. Form held, and they took the win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.