FC Volendam 2-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Vitesse meet at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitesse (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vitesse have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for FC Volendam, 1.20 for Vitesse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Volendam, 0 for Vitesse and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 70% and Vitesse 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 68% | Vitesse 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.26 xG and Vitesse 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.901 / defence 1.407 | Vitesse attack 1.143 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.181. Data: 21 FC Volendam games / 55 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 23% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 50%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Vitesse 2.00. Vitesse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Vitesse 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 23% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Volendam 1.26 / Vitesse 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.901 / def 1.407 | Vitesse attack 1.143 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Vitesse xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Vitesse kick off?
FC Volendam vs Vitesse kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
FC Volendam 2 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is FC Volendam vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Vitesse part of?
FC Volendam vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 23% chance of winning, Vitesse a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Volendam and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Vitesse?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Vitesse in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Vitesse (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.90x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (1.14x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 21/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
23%
4.31
27%
3.77
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.16
1.90
Vitesse xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
3%
28.83
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.90 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Volendam come into this having played 59 games, going 25W 17D 17L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 1.36 PPG from 59 outings (22W 14D 23L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.36 for Vitesse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Volendam's home form reads 16W 4D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 1.38 points per game from 29 outings (11W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.29 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Vitesse in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 25W 17D 17L in their last 59 games (1.56 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 22W 14D 23L in their last 59 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Vitesse away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.79 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-0 on 17 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
2
Draws
1
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Vitesse have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when FC Volendam 4-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Vitesse?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for FC Volendam, 55% for Vitesse — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for FC Volendam and 62% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of FC Volendam's games and 55% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC Volendam's matches and 62% of Vitesse's.
Do FC Volendam and Vitesse tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Vitesse 2-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.26 xG and Vitesse 1.90 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vitesse landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.90 / defence 1.41 against Vitesse attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 23% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 50%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, Vitesse 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.56 PPG, Vitesse 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.