FC Volendam 1-4 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 42%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host NEC Nijmegen at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, FC Volendam have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, NEC Nijmegen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 74% and NEC Nijmegen 49% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 71% | NEC Nijmegen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.34 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.862 / defence 1.150 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.010 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.360. Data: 1 FC Volendam games / 35 NEC Nijmegen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 31% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 42%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | NEC Nijmegen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 90% | NEC Nijmegen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 31% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Volendam 1.34 / NEC Nijmegen 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.862 / def 1.150 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.010 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.58
NEC Nijmegen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen?
FC Volendam 1 - 4 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 31% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Volendam's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
31%
3.19
27%
3.77
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.92
1.58
NEC Nijmegen xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
6%
15.45
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.58 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam come into this having played 35 games, going 20W 11D 4L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.09 PPG from 35 outings (10W 8D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Volendam's home form reads 12W 3D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.09 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 20W 11D 4L in their last 35 games (2.03 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.29 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
NEC Nijmegen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Volendam
1
Draws
5
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 0, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 3-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 82%, NEC Nijmegen at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for FC Volendam and 53% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of FC Volendam's games and 65% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of FC Volendam's matches and 53% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do FC Volendam and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat FC Volendam 1-4 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.34 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.58 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.58 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 31% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 42%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, NEC Nijmegen 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.