FC Volendam 2-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Cambuur in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 21 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in FC Volendam's favour (1.10 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Volendam, 0 for Cambuur and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2023, ended 3–0 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Cambuur — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 68% and Cambuur 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 68% | Cambuur 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.09 xG and Cambuur 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.021 / defence 1.217 | Cambuur attack 0.761 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.301. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 FC Volendam games / 63 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 56% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Cambuur 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Cambuur 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 56% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Volendam 2.09 / Cambuur 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.021 / def 1.217 | Cambuur attack 0.761 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cambuur xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Cambuur kick off?
FC Volendam vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Cambuur?
FC Volendam 2 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is FC Volendam vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Cambuur part of?
FC Volendam vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 56% chance of winning, Cambuur a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Volendam and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Cambuur in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.02) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.76x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 29/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.23
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.30
1.21
Cambuur xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
12%
8.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
2%
40.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.21 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 27W 16D 20L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Cambuur's form line: 15W 10D 38L from 63 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.87 PPG from 31 outings (18W 4D 9L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 8W 7D 16L from 31 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.17 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Cambuur in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 27W 16D 20L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 15W 10D 38L in their last 63 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Cambuur away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.87 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 0-3 on 8 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
FC Volendam
0
Draws
0
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 4, Cambuur have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when FC Volendam 4-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Cambuur?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 77%, Cambuur 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for FC Volendam and 61% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of FC Volendam's games and 48% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of FC Volendam's matches and 61% of Cambuur's.
Do FC Volendam and Cambuur tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Cambuur 2-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.09 xG and Cambuur 1.21 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.02 / defence 1.22 against Cambuur attack 0.76 / defence 1.28, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 56% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 20%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, Cambuur 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.