Emmen 2-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates NAC Breda at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Relegation Round as Emmen welcome NAC Breda to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 June 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Emmen have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
NAC Breda — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. NAC Breda's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Emmen's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Emmen have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while NAC Breda have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Emmen winning.
The historical record gives Emmen a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
NAC Breda trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 51% versus NAC Breda 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 54% | NAC Breda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.24 xG and NAC Breda 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.634 / defence 1.162 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.314. Emmen's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Emmen games / 0 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 33% | Draw 30% | NAC Breda 36%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | NAC Breda 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Emmen dominate the H2H record, yet NAC Breda are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 30% | NAC Breda 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 33% | Draw 30% | NAC Breda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Emmen 1.24 / NAC Breda 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.634 / def 1.162 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.30
NAC Breda xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs NAC Breda kick off?
Emmen vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Emmen 2 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Emmen vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs NAC Breda part of?
Emmen vs NAC Breda is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 33% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Emmen and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Record (3 meetings): Emmen 3W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emmen's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
33%
2.99
30%
3.30
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.54
1.30
NAC Breda xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
11%
9.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Emmen and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Emmen and 1.30 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 11D 19L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
NAC Breda's form line: 18W 11D 14L from 43 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.16 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (7W 9D 5L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 7W 4D 10L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.58 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or NAC Breda away?
Emmen's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.43 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Emmen or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 38%, NAC Breda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Emmen) and 62% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 38% of games; NAC Breda in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Emmen's recent matches and 52% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Emmen's recent games and 62% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat NAC Breda 2-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.24 xG and NAC Breda 1.30 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.63 / defence 1.16 against NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 33% | Draw 30% | NAC Breda 36%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 54%, NAC Breda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.16 PPG, NAC Breda 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.