Cambuur 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 33 as Cambuur welcome Willem II to Cambuur Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cambuur — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Cambuur Stadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Willem II's away record: 0W 0D 10L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Cambuur) versus 0.80 (Willem II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cambuur, 0 for Willem II and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 94% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 72% versus Willem II 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 72% | Willem II 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.92 xG and Willem II 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.019 / defence 1.500 | Willem II attack 0.578 / defence 1.651. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.281. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.651 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Cambuur games / 32 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 56% | Draw 22% | Willem II 22%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Willem II 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 100% | Willem II 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 56% | Draw 22% | Willem II 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Cambuur 1.92 / Willem II 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.019 / def 1.500 | Willem II attack 0.578 / def 1.651 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Willem II xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Willem II kick off?
Cambuur vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Willem II?
Cambuur 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Cambuur vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Willem II part of?
Cambuur vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 56% chance of winning, Willem II a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cambuur and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Cambuur and Willem II in?
Cambuur (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Willem II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.02x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.52
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.03
1.11
Willem II xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
3%
31.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.11 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambuur's recent record stands at 10W 5D 17L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 19L across 32 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.09 PPG, Willem II on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 5W 2D 9L from 16 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 2W 2D 12L across 16 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 0.88 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Willem II in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 10W 5D 17L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Willem II have gone 8W 5D 19L in their last 32 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Willem II away?
Cambuur's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.06 PPG; Willem II away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cambuur's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
3
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Willem II have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Willem II 0-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Willem II?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 94%, Willem II at 44%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Cambuur and 56% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 94% of Cambuur's games and 44% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Cambuur's matches and 56% of Willem II's.
Do Cambuur and Willem II tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Willem II in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur and Willem II finished level at 1-1 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.92 xG and Willem II 1.11 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.02 / defence 1.50 against Willem II attack 0.58 / defence 1.65, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 56% | Draw 22% | Willem II 22%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 72%, Willem II 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.09 PPG, Willem II 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.