Cambuur vs Utrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as Cambuur welcome Utrecht to Kooi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur at Kooi Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.90. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Utrecht have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cambuur at 1.50 PPG versus Utrecht's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cambuur, 2 for Utrecht and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Utrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Utrecht trading profile (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 68% and Utrecht 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 66% | Utrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.49 xG and Utrecht 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.120 / defence 1.124 | Utrecht attack 0.899 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.842. Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Cambuur games / 45 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 52% | Draw 19% | Utrecht 29%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.92 | Draw 5.26 | Utrecht 3.45. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.35 combined xG gives a 81% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 78% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 70% | Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 52% | Draw 19% | Utrecht 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 78% | xG Cambuur 2.49 / Utrecht 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.120 / def 1.124 | Utrecht attack 0.899 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.842 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Utrecht xG
78%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Utrecht kick off?
Cambuur vs Utrecht is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Kooi Stadion.
Where is Cambuur vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Utrecht part of?
Cambuur vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 52% chance of winning, Utrecht a 29% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Cambuur and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Utrecht?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Utrecht in?
Cambuur (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.12x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (6.9%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
52%
1.93
19%
5.21
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
3 – 1
6.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Cambuur xG
Total xG
4.35
1.86
Utrecht xG
1.93
52%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.29
22%
BTTS No
4.45
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
8%
12.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.40
2%
41.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.86 for Utrecht, a combined total of 4.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambuur come into this having played 47 games, going 26W 12D 9L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.47 PPG from 47 outings (19W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cambuur's home form reads 14W 6D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.17 points per game from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.64 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Utrecht in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 26W 12D 9L in their last 47 games (1.91 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 19W 12D 16L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Utrecht away?
Cambuur's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.00 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Utrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambuur
1
Draws
2
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Utrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, Utrecht have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Cambuur 0-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 67%, Utrecht at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Cambuur and 67% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cambuur's games and 71% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Cambuur's matches and 67% of Utrecht's.
Do Cambuur and Utrecht tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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