Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambuur host PEC Zwolle at Kooi Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kooi Stadion, Cambuur have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Cambuur have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cambuur have won 2, PEC Zwolle 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 1–0 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cambuur in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 70% and PEC Zwolle 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 65% | PEC Zwolle 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.80 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.914 / defence 1.353 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.863 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.782. Data: 8 Cambuur games / 42 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 33% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 44%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | PEC Zwolle 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 70% | PEC Zwolle 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 33% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 74% | xG Cambuur 1.80 / PEC Zwolle 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.914 / def 1.353 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.863 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.782 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.08
PEC Zwolle xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Kooi Stadion.
Where is Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 33% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Cambuur and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and PEC Zwolle?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Cambuur and PEC Zwolle in?
Cambuur (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambuur's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
33%
3.05
23%
4.28
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.88
2.08
PEC Zwolle xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.88
Clean Sheet
12%
8.02
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
4%
24.49
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Cambuur and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.08 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 22W 12D 9L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 11W 11D 21L from 43 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.95 PPG from 21 outings (12W 5D 4L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 7D 12L from 21 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PEC Zwolle's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.26 scored and 2.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; PEC Zwolle in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 22W 12D 9L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Cambuur's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.95 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and PEC Zwolle runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Cambuur
0
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and PEC Zwolle?
From 3 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when PEC Zwolle 0-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and PEC Zwolle?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 67%, PEC Zwolle at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Cambuur and 76% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cambuur's games and 81% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Cambuur's matches and 76% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Cambuur and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.