Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 85% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees NEC Nijmegen travel to Kooi Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cambuur — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 4W 2D 4L at Kooi Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cambuur are significantly better at Kooi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. NEC Nijmegen are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cambuur, 2 for NEC Nijmegen and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 70% and NEC Nijmegen 84% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 65% | NEC Nijmegen 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.16 xG and NEC Nijmegen 4.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.789 / defence 1.707 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.247 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 4.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Cambuur games / 37 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 6% | Draw 9% | NEC Nijmegen 85%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 16.67 | Draw 11.11 | NEC Nijmegen 1.18. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (85%) — a 79pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 89% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 5.16. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 89% — a total xG of 5.16 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 4.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 85% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 5.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 89% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 80% | NEC Nijmegen 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 6% | Draw 9% | NEC Nijmegen 85% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 89% | BTTS 68% | xG Cambuur 1.16 / NEC Nijmegen 4.00 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.789 / def 1.707 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.247 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (85%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
4.00
NEC Nijmegen xG
68%
BTTS
97%
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
76%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
Where is Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 6% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 85% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 89%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 2W.
What form are Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambuur's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 4.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-4, at 7.1%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.1%), 0-4 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
6%
17.06
9%
11.42
85%
1.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
7.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 4
7.1%
Away win
0 – 3
6.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cambuur xG
Total xG
5.16
4.00
NEC Nijmegen xG
17.06
6%
Home win
11.42
9%
Draw
1.17
85%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
89%
Over 2.5
1.12
11%
Under 2.5
9.09
76%
Over 3.5
1.32
24%
Under 3.5
4.17
59%
Over 4.5
1.69
41%
Under 4.5
2.44
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
2%
54.82
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
0%
–
27%
3.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.9 |
| 1 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 5.7 |
| 2 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-4 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cambuur and 4.00 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 5.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 85%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur's recent record stands at 20W 8D 9L from 37 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 8L across 37 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.84 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 9W 6D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 2.30 scored and 1.54 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; NEC Nijmegen in 84%.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 20W 8D 9L in their last 37 games (1.84 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 18W 11D 8L in their last 37 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Cambuur's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.95 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cambuur's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambuur
1
Draws
2
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 68%, NEC Nijmegen at 90%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Cambuur and 68% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cambuur's games and 90% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Cambuur's matches and 68% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.