Cambuur 2-5 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambuur face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 3 as Cambuur welcome Feyenoord to Kooi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 August 2026 at 14:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's home record at Kooi Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cambuur are significantly better at Kooi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Feyenoord have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Cambuur.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 69% and Feyenoord 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 64% | Feyenoord 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 0.83 xG and Feyenoord 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.690 / defence 1.374 | Feyenoord attack 0.905 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.648. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 2 Cambuur games / 36 Feyenoord games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cambuur 13% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 65%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 7.69 | Draw 4.55 | Feyenoord 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 70% | Feyenoord 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 13% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 50% | xG Cambuur 0.83 / Feyenoord 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.690 / def 1.374 | Feyenoord attack 0.905 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.648 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Feyenoord xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Feyenoord kick off?
Cambuur vs Feyenoord kicked off at 14:45 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Cambuur 2 - 5 Feyenoord.
Where is Cambuur vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Feyenoord part of?
Cambuur vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 13% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 65% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cambuur and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Feyenoord?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 4W.
What form are Cambuur and Feyenoord in?
Cambuur (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.69) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
13%
7.45
22%
4.63
65%
1.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.88
2.05
Feyenoord xG
7.45
13%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.54
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
13%
7.77
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
2%
57.88
28%
3.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.05 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur's recent record stands at 20W 9D 7L from 36 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 7L across 36 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.92 PPG, Feyenoord on 1.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 11W 5D 2L from 18 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feyenoord's away record stands at 9W 5D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.03 scored and 1.28 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 20W 9D 7L in their last 36 games (1.92 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 20W 9D 7L in their last 36 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Feyenoord away?
Cambuur's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.11 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and Feyenoord runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Feyenoord have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Cambuur
0
Draws
5
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Feyenoord?
From 5 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 0, Feyenoord have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Cambuur 2-5 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 67%, Feyenoord 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Cambuur) and 56% (Feyenoord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cambuur's games and 44% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Cambuur's matches and 56% of Feyenoord's.
Do Cambuur and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Cambuur 2-5 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 0.83 xG and Feyenoord 2.05 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Feyenoord outscored their 2.05 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.69 / defence 1.37 against Feyenoord attack 0.91 / defence 0.77, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 13% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 65%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 64%, Feyenoord 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.92 PPG, Feyenoord 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.