AZ Alkmaar 3-3 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Utrecht have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Utrecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. AZ Alkmaar's 2.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Utrecht's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 0 for Utrecht and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Utrecht — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 55% versus Utrecht 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 64% | Utrecht 51%). Note also that Utrecht surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while AZ Alkmaar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.91 xG and Utrecht 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.159 / defence 0.794 | Utrecht attack 0.965 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.474. AZ Alkmaar have a tight defence (rating 0.794), which is pulling Utrecht's projected output down. Data: built from AZ Alkmaar's last 67 games and Utrecht's last 67.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 54% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 21%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.85 | Draw 4.01 | Utrecht 4.78. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AZ Alkmaar 50% (last 10 home games) | Utrecht 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 34 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 54% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.91 / Utrecht 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.159 / def 0.794 | Utrecht attack 0.965 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Utrecht xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht FAQs
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?
AZ Alkmaar 3 - 3 Utrecht.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 34) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 54% chance of winning, Utrecht a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (1.16) and Utrecht's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.96x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from AZ Alkmaar's last 67 games and Utrecht's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
54%
1.85
25%
4.01
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.04
1.13
Utrecht xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
3%
32.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.13 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 39W 14D 14L from 67 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 29W 17D 21L across 67 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AZ Alkmaar by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Utrecht heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 20W 7D 6L from their last 33 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utrecht's away record stands at 13W 8D 12L across their last 33 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.01 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.51 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
Utrecht
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar (Home) vs Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
Utrecht
Current Season
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 39W 14D 14L in their last 67 games (1.96 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 29W 17D 21L in their last 67 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Utrecht away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.03 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.42 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Utrecht in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Utrecht on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AZ Alkmaar
5
Draws
2
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, Utrecht have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Utrecht 1-4 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 58%, Utrecht 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for AZ Alkmaar and 58% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Utrecht in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 52% of Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 58% of Utrecht's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 73% of Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 34, as AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht drew 3-3 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.91 xG and Utrecht 1.13 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Utrecht outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.16 / defence 0.79 against Utrecht attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 54% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 21%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, Utrecht 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Utrecht's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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