AZ Alkmaar 1-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 1 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar at AFAS Stadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in AZ Alkmaar's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, NEC Nijmegen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 1W, NEC Nijmegen 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 3–1 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 73% and NEC Nijmegen 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 70% | NEC Nijmegen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.77 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.109 / defence 0.900 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.243 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.431. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 AZ Alkmaar games / 37 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 42% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 35%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | NEC Nijmegen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 70% | NEC Nijmegen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 42% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.77 / NEC Nijmegen 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.109 / def 0.900 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.243 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.60
NEC Nijmegen xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 1 September 2022 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 42% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (2 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.24x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
42%
2.37
23%
4.41
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.37
1.60
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.74
6%
16.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.60 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 37 games, going 22W 7D 8L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.14 PPG from 37 outings (11W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 13W 3D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.50 points per game from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.16 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 22W 7D 8L in their last 37 games (1.97 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 11W 9D 17L in their last 37 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.33 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
NEC Nijmegen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
3
Draws
3
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for AZ Alkmaar, 67% for NEC Nijmegen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for AZ Alkmaar and 56% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 67% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 56% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.77 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.60 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.11 / defence 0.90 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.24 / defence 1.00, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 42% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 35%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 70%, NEC Nijmegen 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.