AZ Alkmaar 1-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to AFAS Stadion to face AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Thursday 24 April 2025 at 18:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
AZ Alkmaar's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda (all games): 0W 6D 4L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward AZ Alkmaar. A 0.60 PPG lead over NAC Breda (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 0 for NAC Breda and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2024, ended AZ Alkmaar 2–1 NAC Breda — a AZ Alkmaar win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 52% versus NAC Breda 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 64% | NAC Breda 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: AZ Alkmaar surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while NAC Breda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that NAC Breda surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while AZ Alkmaar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.87 xG and NAC Breda 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.915 / defence 0.877 | NAC Breda attack 0.759 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.291. NAC Breda's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AZ Alkmaar's projected output up. NAC Breda's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from AZ Alkmaar's last 63 games and NAC Breda's last 29.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 61% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 16%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.65 | Draw 4.36 | NAC Breda 6.12. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AZ Alkmaar 50% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 30 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 24 April 2025 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 61% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.87 / NAC Breda 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.915 / def 0.877 | NAC Breda attack 0.759 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.86
NAC Breda xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Thursday 24 April 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 30) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 61% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 0.92x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.76x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from AZ Alkmaar's last 63 games and NAC Breda's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.36
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.73
0.86
NAC Breda xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
3%
39.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.86 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 63 games, going 32W 15D 16L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.37 PPG from 63 outings (23W 17D 23L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 1.37 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 17W 5D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.51 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 63%.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 32W 15D 16L in their last 63 games (1.76 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 23W 17D 23L in their last 63 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or NAC Breda away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.87 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.10 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
0
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, NAC Breda have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: AZ Alkmaar 3-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 50%, NAC Breda 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for AZ Alkmaar and 60% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; NAC Breda in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 57% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 60% of NAC Breda's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 73% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.87 xG and NAC Breda 0.86 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against NAC Breda attack 0.76 / defence 1.23, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 61% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 16%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, NAC Breda 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
NAC Breda's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.76 PPG, NAC Breda 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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