AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Stadion plays host to AZ Alkmaar versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Thursday 2 December 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 games at AFAS Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in AZ Alkmaar's favour (1.40 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fortuna Sittard in 83%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fortuna Sittard goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 54% and Fortuna Sittard 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 62% | Fortuna Sittard 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.63 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.339 / defence 1.190 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.833 / defence 1.622. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.312. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — their λ of 2.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.622 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 AZ Alkmaar games / 13 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 66% | Draw 17% | Fortuna Sittard 17%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.52 | Draw 5.88 | Fortuna Sittard 5.88. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.63 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.93 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 60% | Fortuna Sittard 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Dec 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 66% | Draw 17% | Fortuna Sittard 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 68% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.63 / Fortuna Sittard 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.339 / def 1.190 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.833 / def 1.622 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Fortuna Sittard xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 17:45 on Thursday 2 December 2021 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard?
AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 66% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.63. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.83x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
66%
1.52
17%
5.83
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.93
1.30
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.83
17%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
7%
13.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
1%
81.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 2.63 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.30 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 2D 6L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Sittard sit at 0.69 PPG from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — AZ Alkmaar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fortuna Sittard have taken 0.40 points per game from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.15 scored and 2.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.00 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 4-0 on 1 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
AZ Alkmaar
0
Draws
2
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 8, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for AZ Alkmaar, 80% for Fortuna Sittard — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for AZ Alkmaar and 40% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 80% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 40% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out Fortuna Sittard 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Fortuna Sittard 2-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.63 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.30 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.34 / defence 1.19 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.83 / defence 1.62, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 66% | Draw 17% | Fortuna Sittard 17%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 62%, Fortuna Sittard 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.