AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 6W 3D 1L at AFAS Stadion — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AFAS Stadion.
Feyenoord (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Feyenoord arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Feyenoord, who have claimed 7 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 60% and Feyenoord 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 58% | Feyenoord 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.27 xG and Feyenoord 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.931 / defence 0.810 | Feyenoord attack 1.445 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.842. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.445 — the away xG of 2.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 AZ Alkmaar games / 45 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 22% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 58%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | Feyenoord 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AZ Alkmaar 40% | Feyenoord 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 22% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.27 / Feyenoord 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.931 / def 0.810 | Feyenoord attack 1.445 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.842 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Feyenoord xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at AFAS Stadion.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 22% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
Record (10 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 2 | Feyenoord 7W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.45x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 2.16.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
22%
4.61
21%
4.83
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.42
2.16
Feyenoord xG
4.61
22%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
12%
8.65
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
3%
39.86
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.16 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 20W 12D 13L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord's form line: 26W 12D 7L from 45 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 2.00 for Feyenoord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 1.86 PPG from 22 outings (11W 8D 3L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 12W 6D 4L from 22 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 20W 12D 13L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 26W 12D 7L in their last 45 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.86 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.91 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 1, Feyenoord have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Feyenoord 2-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 68%, Feyenoord 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for AZ Alkmaar and 59% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 50% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 59% of Feyenoord's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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