Almere City FC 1-4 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Twente at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Twente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus Twente in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Almere City FC haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 5W 3D 2L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Twente have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Twente haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Twente's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Almere City FC, 2.30 for Twente — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Twente — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 55% versus Twente 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 42% | Twente 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.23 xG and Twente 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Twente attack 1.098 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.812 / away 1.336. Data: 0 Almere City FC games / 34 Twente games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 26% | Draw 29% | Twente 46%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Twente 2.17. Twente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Twente are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Twente if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 50% | Twente 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 26% | Draw 29% | Twente 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Almere City FC 1.23 / Twente 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Twente attack 1.098 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.812 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Twente (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Twente xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Twente kick off?
Almere City FC vs Twente kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Twente?
Almere City FC 1 - 4 Twente.
Where is Almere City FC vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Twente part of?
Almere City FC vs Twente is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 26% chance of winning, Twente a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Almere City FC and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Twente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and Twente in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.85) and Twente's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Twente's attack (1.10x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
The sample (0/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
26%
3.90
29%
3.50
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.92
1.69
Twente xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
5%
21.09
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.69 for Twente, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 22W 9D 7L from 38 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. Almere City FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Twente, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 6L across 38 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. Twente haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.97 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.95 for Twente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 10W 5D 4L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Twente's away record stands at 6W 7D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Twente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.95 scored and 0.76 conceded. Twente's attacking output running into Almere City FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Twente in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Pre-Season
Twente
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Twente in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 22W 9D 7L in their last 38 games (1.97 PPG), while Twente have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Twente away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.84 PPG; Twente away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Twente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Twente in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Twente go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Twente won 0-5 on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Twente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almere City FC
0
Draws
4
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Twente?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 0, Twente have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Twente 1-0 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Twente see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 68%, Twente 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Almere City FC) and 37% (Twente).
On the defensive side: Twente in 37%; Twente in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Twente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Almere City FC's games and 42% of Twente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Almere City FC's recent games and 37% of Twente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Twente run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente beat Almere City FC 1-4 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.23 xG and Twente 1.69 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Twente outscored their 1.69 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Twente attack 1.10 / defence 0.80, drawn from 0/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 26% | Draw 29% | Twente 46%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 42%, Twente 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Twente's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.97 PPG, Twente 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Twente win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Twente (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.