Almere City FC 0-0 GO Ahead Eagles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GO Ahead Eagles at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Almere City FC face GO Ahead Eagles.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Almere City FC welcome GO Ahead Eagles to Yanmar Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Almere City FC have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Almere City FC at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
GO Ahead Eagles — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
GO Ahead Eagles's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Almere City FC) versus 1.40 (GO Ahead Eagles). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
GO Ahead Eagles trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 54% versus GO Ahead Eagles 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 44% | GO Ahead Eagles 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.36 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.686 / defence 1.275 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.820 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.389. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.686 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.36. GO Ahead Eagles's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almere City FC's projected output up. Almere City FC's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing GO Ahead Eagles's projected output up. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 9 games and GO Ahead Eagles's last 43.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 33% | Draw 30% | GO Ahead Eagles 37%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.03 | Draw 3.37 | GO Ahead Eagles 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GO Ahead Eagles as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GO Ahead Eagles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Almere City FC's last 10 home games and GO Ahead Eagles's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 50% (last 10 home games) | GO Ahead Eagles 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 10 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 33% | Draw 30% | GO Ahead Eagles 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Almere City FC 1.36 / GO Ahead Eagles 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.686 / def 1.275 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.820 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: GO Ahead Eagles (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
GO Ahead Eagles xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles FAQs
What time does Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles kick off?
Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Almere City FC 0 - 0 GO Ahead Eagles.
Where is Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles part of?
Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 10) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 33% chance of winning, GO Ahead Eagles a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GO Ahead Eagles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Almere City FC and GO Ahead Eagles will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.69) and GO Ahead Eagles's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GO Ahead Eagles's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Almere City FC's last 9 games and GO Ahead Eagles's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GO Ahead Eagles Win
33%
3.03
30%
3.37
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.45
GO Ahead Eagles xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
8%
12.95
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and GO Ahead Eagles expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.45 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 21W 10D 12L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
GO Ahead Eagles's form line: 14W 12D 17L from 43 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Almere City FC are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GO Ahead Eagles.
Venue Form
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 21 home games (10W 4D 7L).
On the road, GO Ahead Eagles have gone 3W 5D 13L from their last 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GO Ahead Eagles's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; GO Ahead Eagles are on 1.47 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
Almere City FC (Home) vs GO Ahead Eagles (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almere City FC
Blended
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
❓ Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles Form FAQs
What form are Almere City FC and GO Ahead Eagles in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 21W 10D 12L in their last 43 games (1.70 PPG), while GO Ahead Eagles have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or GO Ahead Eagles away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.62 PPG; GO Ahead Eagles away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or GO Ahead Eagles been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, GO Ahead Eagles in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Nov 2024, when GO Ahead Eagles won GO Ahead Eagles 3-0 Almere City FC.
Almere City FC's record when hosting GO Ahead Eagles specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almere City FC
3
Draws
1
GO Ahead Eagles
Recent Meetings
❓ Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and GO Ahead Eagles?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Almere City FC have won 0, GO Ahead Eagles have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and GO Ahead Eagles last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2025: Almere City FC 0-0 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and GO Ahead Eagles?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 62%, GO Ahead Eagles 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Almere City FC) and 57% (GO Ahead Eagles). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / GO Ahead Eagles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almere City FC vs GO Ahead Eagles Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almere City FC and GO Ahead Eagles matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Almere City FC's games and 62% of GO Ahead Eagles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Almere City FC and GO Ahead Eagles matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Almere City FC's matches and 57% of GO Ahead Eagles's.
Do Almere City FC and GO Ahead Eagles matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 86% of GO Ahead Eagles's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Almere City FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Almere City FC and GO Ahead Eagles drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.36 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.45 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. GO Ahead Eagles landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.27 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.82 / defence 1.21, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 33% | Draw 30% | GO Ahead Eagles 37%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 44%, GO Ahead Eagles 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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