Ajax 5-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajax vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Willem II travel to Johan Cruijff Arena to take on Ajax. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Ajax have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Ajax have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajax's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Johan Cruijff Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Willem II have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ajax 1.60 PPG, Willem II 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Ajax have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Willem II have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Ajax winning.
The historical record gives Ajax a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ajax in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Willem II in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajax 63% versus Willem II 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 58% | Willem II 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 1.90 xG and Willem II 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.012 / defence 0.978 | Willem II attack 0.772 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.922. Data: 39 Ajax games / 5 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajax 47% | Draw 25% | Willem II 28%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 3.57. Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Ajax 70% | Willem II 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 47% | Draw 25% | Willem II 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Ajax 1.90 / Willem II 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.012 / def 0.978 | Willem II attack 0.772 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.922 • Poisson stance: Ajax (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Willem II xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajax vs Willem II kick off?
Ajax vs Willem II kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What was the final score in Ajax vs Willem II?
Ajax 5 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Ajax vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What competition is Ajax vs Willem II part of?
Ajax vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 47% chance of winning, Willem II a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Ajax and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Ajax vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Ajax 4W | Draws 0 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Ajax and Willem II in?
Ajax (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Willem II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajax's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
47%
2.15
25%
3.94
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Ajax xG
Total xG
3.35
1.45
Willem II xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
4%
23.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Ajax and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Ajax and 1.45 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajax come into this having played 41 games, going 18W 16D 7L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.68 PPG from 41 outings (20W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajax on 1.71 PPG, Willem II on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ajax's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.89 points per game from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Ajax are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.51 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajax and Willem II in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 18W 16D 7L in their last 41 games (1.71 PPG), while Willem II have gone 20W 9D 12L in their last 41 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 1.58 PPG; Willem II away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Ajax or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Willem II in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajax and Willem II runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 15 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajax have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2021, when Ajax won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajax's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
5
Ajax
0
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Willem II?
From 5 meetings on record, Ajax have won 5, Willem II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2026, when Ajax 5-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and Willem II?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajax 63%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Ajax and 63% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Willem II in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajax play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ajax's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajax vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Ajax's matches and 63% of Willem II's.
Do Ajax and Willem II tend to score early?
Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Willem II in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Willem II 5-1 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 1.90 xG and Willem II 1.45 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Ajax beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Willem II attack 0.77 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 47% | Draw 25% | Willem II 28%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 58%, Willem II 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajax 1.71 PPG, Willem II 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.