Ajax 3-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajax vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ajax welcome Almere City FC to Johan Cruijff Arena in Eredivisie (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Ajax — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ajax at home: 4W 6D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Almere City FC have recorded 0W 7D 3L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Ajax carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Ajax, 0 for Almere City FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Ajax 2–2 Almere City FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ajax in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 33 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajax 71% and Almere City FC 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 76% | Almere City FC 44%). Note also that Almere City FC surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Ajax recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 1.85 xG and Almere City FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.121 / defence 0.936 | Almere City FC attack 0.687 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.458. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.687 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Ajax's last 66 games and Almere City FC's last 32.
Result probabilities: Ajax 57% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.75 | Draw 3.88 | Almere City FC 5.87. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ajax's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajax 90% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 33 | Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 57% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Ajax 1.85 / Almere City FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.121 / def 0.936 | Almere City FC attack 0.687 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Ajax (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Almere City FC xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajax vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does Ajax vs Almere City FC kick off?
Ajax vs Almere City FC kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What was the final score in Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Ajax 3 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is Ajax vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What competition is Ajax vs Almere City FC part of?
Ajax vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 33) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 57% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ajax and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ajax vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ajax's attack rating (1.12) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ajax's last 66 games and Almere City FC's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.88
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Ajax xG
Total xG
2.79
0.94
Almere City FC xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
3%
37.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajax vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Ajax and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Ajax and 0.94 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajax's recent record stands at 34W 19D 13L from 66 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 21D 19L across 66 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajax on 1.83 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajax have managed 18W 11D 4L from their last 33 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 14W 10D 9L across their last 33 away games, a 1.58 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ajax are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
Ajax (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajax
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Ajax vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are Ajax and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 34W 19D 13L in their last 66 games (1.83 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 26W 21D 19L in their last 66 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or Almere City FC away?
Ajax's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 1.97 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Ajax or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Ajax have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 May 2024, when Ajax won Ajax 3-0 Almere City FC.
Ajax's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ajax
1
Draws
0
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajax vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Almere City FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajax have won 3, Almere City FC have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ajax and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2025: Almere City FC 0-1 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and Almere City FC?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajax 67%, Almere City FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Ajax) and 36% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Almere City FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajax vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajax and Almere City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ajax's games and 48% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ajax and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Ajax's recent games and 36% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajax and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Ajax's recent matches and 76% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Almere City FC 3-0 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 1.85 xG and Almere City FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ajax beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almere City FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.12 / defence 0.94 against Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 0.97, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 57% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 17%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 76%, Almere City FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajax 1.83 PPG, Almere City FC 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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