ADO Den Haag 2-1 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees PSV Eindhoven travel to Bingoal Stadion to take on ADO Den Haag. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Bingoal Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — ADO Den Haag are significantly better at Bingoal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PSV Eindhoven are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ADO Den Haag register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PSV Eindhoven in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
PSV Eindhoven in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 57% and PSV Eindhoven 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 74% | PSV Eindhoven 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.29 xG and PSV Eindhoven 3.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.834 / defence 1.277 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.375 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.795. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — the away xG of 3.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 ADO Den Haag games / 42 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 11% | Draw 15% | PSV Eindhoven 73%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 9.09 | Draw 6.67 | PSV Eindhoven 1.37. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 3.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 60% | PSV Eindhoven 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 11% | Draw 15% | PSV Eindhoven 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 70% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.29 / PSV Eindhoven 3.15 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.834 / def 1.277 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.375 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.795 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
3.15
PSV Eindhoven xG
70%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven?
ADO Den Haag 2 - 1 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 11% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 73% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
ADO Den Haag's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 3.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-3, at 7.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.6%), 1-4 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
11%
8.81
15%
6.54
73%
1.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
1 – 4
6.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
4.44
3.15
PSV Eindhoven xG
8.81
11%
Home win
6.54
15%
Draw
1.36
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
4%
23.38
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
0%
–
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 |
| 1 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 3.15 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 4.44.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 26W 4D 12L from 42 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 33W 4D 5L across 42 games — 2.45 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PSV Eindhoven by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ADO Den Haag heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 13W 2D 5L from 20 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PSV Eindhoven's away record stands at 16W 1D 3L across 20 trips, a 2.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.02 scored and 1.31 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven in 79%.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 26W 4D 12L in their last 42 games (1.95 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 33W 4D 5L in their last 42 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.05 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.45 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
ADO Den Haag
0
Draws
0
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven?
From 1 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when ADO Den Haag 2-1 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ADO Den Haag at 65%, PSV Eindhoven at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for ADO Den Haag and 85% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of ADO Den Haag's games and 80% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 85% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat PSV Eindhoven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat PSV Eindhoven 2-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.29 xG and PSV Eindhoven 3.15 xG, a combined 4.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.83 / defence 1.28 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.38 / defence 0.93, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 11% | Draw 15% | PSV Eindhoven 73%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a ADO Den Haag win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 74%, PSV Eindhoven 86%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.95. Form was overturned, with ADO Den Haag winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.