Willem II 2-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees VVV Venlo travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
VVV Venlo — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Willem II) versus 1.50 (VVV Venlo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Willem II: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for VVV Venlo, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Willem II winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Willem II and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 60% versus VVV Venlo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 50% | VVV Venlo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.11 xG and VVV Venlo 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.722 / defence 0.877 | VVV Venlo attack 0.895 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.540. Willem II's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Willem II games / 60 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 33% | Draw 29% | VVV Venlo 38%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | VVV Venlo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VVV Venlo as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 50% | VVV Venlo 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 33% | Draw 29% | VVV Venlo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Willem II 1.11 / VVV Venlo 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.722 / def 0.877 | VVV Venlo attack 0.895 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.736 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.21
VVV Venlo xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Willem II vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 January 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Willem II 2 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is Willem II vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs VVV Venlo part of?
Willem II vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 33% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Willem II and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and VVV Venlo?
Record (7 meetings): Willem II 4W | Draws 2 | VVV Venlo 1W.
What form are Willem II and VVV Venlo in?
Willem II (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Willem II's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
33%
3.05
29%
3.40
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.32
1.21
VVV Venlo xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Willem II and 1.21 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II's recent record stands at 16W 15D 29L from 60 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 31L across 60 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.05 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 8W 6D 15L from 29 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 11W 3D 15L across 29 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.22 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 16W 15D 29L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 21W 8D 31L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or VVV Venlo away?
VVV Venlo's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.03 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and VVV Venlo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Willem II have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Willem II's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Willem II
2
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and VVV Venlo?
From 8 meetings on record, Willem II have won 5, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Willem II 2-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and VVV Venlo?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 59%, VVV Venlo 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Willem II and 69% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Willem II's recent matches and 48% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Willem II's matches and 69% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Willem II and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat VVV Venlo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat VVV Venlo 2-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.11 xG and VVV Venlo 1.21 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.72 / defence 0.88 against VVV Venlo attack 0.90 / defence 0.88, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 33% | Draw 29% | VVV Venlo 38%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 50%, VVV Venlo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.05 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.